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Talks to reopen one of the world’s busiest waterways are reportedly nearing a breakthrough, even as violence at sea continues and regional tensions rise. If finalized, the arrangement would have immediate economic effects — and could reshape the strategic balance in the Gulf at a politically sensitive moment for the United States.
Diplomats met in Rome this week for follow-up negotiations aimed at restoring maritime traffic through the contested strait that has been choked by months of attacks and restrictions. U.S. officials and regional mediators describe progress, while combatants and proxy forces keep testing the fragile calm.
Where negotiations stand
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President Donald Trump told reporters traveling with him in California that an announcement “could happen tomorrow or the next day,” saying negotiators had made “a lot of progress.” A State Department official said the second day of talks in Rome ended early “due to events on the ground” but may resume, calling the discussions “extremely productive.”
Two regional sources briefed on the talks told The Associated Press that Iranian and Omani negotiators have completed a draft agreement and it now awaits approval from Iran’s Supreme Leader, identified by the sources as Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.
Officials described the draft as a temporary, narrowly focused deal to reopen the waterway and said it is linked to earlier U.S.–Iran understandings that collapsed in June. If implemented, negotiators say the pact would also clear the way for renewed discussions over Iran’s nuclear program.
Key elements reportedly on the table
- Shipping would transit the Gulf on a split route: entry through waters controlled by Iran, exit via channels managed by Oman.
- Security services and environmental safeguards would be provided by the route operators, with associated service fees planned to offset costs.
- The U.S. has publicly opposed any proposal that would allow Iran to levy charges on commercial traffic.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said the document with Oman was in its “final stage” and that a joint statement would follow if other parties did not impede the process — a likely reference to U.S. objections.
Economic ripple effects
Closure of the strait had previously forced large volumes of oil and gas to find alternative routes and added pressure to global markets. Brent crude eased initially on the prospect of a deal but remained around $80 per barrel on Wednesday, well below the spikes seen during the conflict’s most intense phase but still consequential for prices at the pump and shipping costs worldwide.
For consumers and businesses, the stakes are concrete: narrower shipping options drive freight rates higher, slow deliveries of fuel and basic goods, and can push inflation higher at a time when central banks and governments are watching costs closely.
Violence at sea continues
Despite diplomatic momentum, attacks on commercial vessels have not stopped. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement said it fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker off Yanbu; Saudi officials had not commented immediately. The rebels have also announced intermittent closures of the Bab el-Mandeb — the narrow passage linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden — for vessels tied to Saudi interests.
In a separate incident, an Indian-flagged merchant ship sank after being struck by an explosive-laden boat in the Red Sea; the crew was rescued. The United Kingdom’s maritime operations center reported a nearby explosion on another vessel but said the crew was safe.
Broader military flashpoints persist
The ceasefire along the Israel–Lebanon front is fraying. Israeli authorities issued evacuation warnings for the southern Lebanese village of Mansouri, citing a ceasefire violation by Hezbollah, and later reported conducting “precise strikes” in response. Negotiations in Rome between Israeli and Lebanese teams are underway to implement an agreement that would see Israeli pullbacks in return for Hezbollah disarmament, but progress is fragile.
Meanwhile, Washington faces domestic political pressure to show progress toward ending an unpopular conflict ahead of congressional contests — a factor likely influencing the tempo of diplomacy.
What to watch next
- Final approval in Tehran: Whether Iran’s supreme authority signs off on the draft will determine if a public announcement is possible.
- Continuity of maritime security: Even with a signed pact, attacks by non-state actors could continue to disrupt shipping.
- U.S. response: Washington’s stance on transit fees and route control will shape whether the deal is accepted by global maritime interests.
- Impact on oil markets: Traders will react quickly to confirmations or setbacks, influencing fuel costs worldwide.
The situation remains fluid: diplomatic breakthroughs and violent incidents can alternate within hours. For global trade and regional stability, the near-term outcome of these Rome talks — and the responses that follow — will matter immediately.
