Show summary Hide summary
U.S. consumer confidence crept higher in June but remains below last year’s level, reflecting a slow recovery after a spring surge in oil and gasoline prices that squeezed household purchasing power. The mixed signals — steady spending alongside weaker sentiment about jobs — matter now because they help explain why the economy has kept growing even as inflation concerns persist.
What the latest data show
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer sentiment rose modestly in June to 91.2, up 0.6 point from May but still under the June 2023 reading of 95.2. For context, this index frequently topped 120 before the pandemic.
Consumer sentiment improves with cheaper fuel: Americans still doubt economic outlook
Knicks championship crowns Jalen Brunson as a New York sports icon
- Consumer confidence: 91.2 in June, a slight monthly increase but below year-ago levels.
- Gas prices: National average peaked above $4.50 per gallon after the U.S.-Iran conflict began in late February and have retreated to about $3.85, according to AAA.
- Spending: Retail and household outlays rose in May, helping sustain roughly a 2.5% annualized GDP growth pace for April–June.
- Job openings: 7.6 million available positions in May, signaling continued employer demand.
- June jobs forecast: Economists expect about 100,000 new payrolls and an unemployment rate near 4.3% (FactSet).
Analysts say the recent decline in fuel costs has eased some inflation worries, which likely contributed to the small uptick in the sentiment index. At the same time, higher prices earlier in the year reduced real incomes for many households, tempering a fuller rebound in consumer morale.
Mixed labor signals
Survey respondents reported a dimmer view of the job market in June: the share saying jobs are “hard to get” rose noticeably from the prior month. That shift contrasts with official statistics showing millions of job openings still on offer, underscoring a gap between public perception and employer behavior.
Those contrasting indicators matter for policymakers and markets. If consumers begin to view employment prospects as worsening, they may pull back spending — a key driver of recent growth. Conversely, persistent job openings can keep wage pressure and recruitment activity elevated, which affects inflationary dynamics.
The Labor Department’s official employment report for June, due this week, will give a clearer read on hiring trends and whether the softer sentiment in the survey maps onto payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Why this matters
For readers trying to gauge near-term economic risks, the picture is nuanced: households continue to spend, shielding growth, but confidence and perceptions of the labor market have weakened. Falling fuel costs provide some relief, yet the stamina of consumer spending will determine whether the economy keeps expanding without reviving broader inflationary pressure.
